视频专访瑞·达利欧:如何“以史为鉴”,预测投资危机?_原创频道_财经网 - CAIJING.COM.CN
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视频专访瑞·达利欧:如何“以史为鉴”,预测投资危机?

本文来源于《财经》 2018-03-30 15:39:00 我要评论(0
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《财经》记者 袁雪/文

导读:我们不像2007年或2008年那样将要面临债务危机,我们在做计算的时候,没有看到有巨大债务要到期不能偿还的情况,现在更像是逐渐的挤压过程

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瑞·达利欧被奉为华尔街基金之王,不仅仅是因为他所创建的桥水基金为全球规模最大的对冲基金,更因为他屡屡能够准确预测到经济危机的发生。在2008年的金融海啸中,对冲基金业平均亏损19%,而桥水获得了正收益。

他目前是全球投资界红人,素有“投资界乔布斯”之称,其对经济与投资的独到理解,让他经常成为美国决策者的座上宾。桥水团队在2007年对崩塌式的债务危机的预警,得到了时任副总统迪克·切尼的国内政策副助理拉姆森·贝特法哈德的重视;在事态进一步恶化时,又被当时的纽约联储主席、后来的美国财政部长蒂姆·盖特纳找去。

瑞·达利欧在《原则》一书中,提供了一种他是如何预测危机的思路——对历史的研究。“在很多这样的危机期间,我都一边交易一边研究,包括20世纪80年代的拉美债务危机、20世纪90年代的日本债务危机、1998年的长期资本管理公司倒闭危机、2000年网络经济泡沫的破裂,以及2001年世界贸易中心和五角大楼遭到攻击后引发的危机。在我的桥水队友的帮助下,我拿起历史书和旧报纸,逐日研究大萧条和德国魏玛共和国时期发生的事件,比较当时发生的情况和现在的情况。这一研究进一步证实了我最严峻的担忧:在我看来势必会发生的情况是,大量的个人、企业和银行将面临严重的债务问题,同时就像1930—1932年的情况一样,美联储将无法通过降息缓解债务危机的冲击。

CJ: I knowthe book has illustrated very clearly how this principle applies to managinginvestment.

RD:Knowing what’s true is very practical. It’s not just a matter of investments.There’s so much confusion because people don’t even know what the people think.So to speak truthfully and to try to figure out what’s best is so logical. Whyshould it be controversial?

CJ:我们知道这本书清楚地展示了这个原理如何适用于投资管理。

RD:知道什么是真的非常实用,这不仅仅是投资的事。由于人们甚至不知道大家是怎么想的,许多困惑便产生了。所以说,讲真话以及试着找出最好的是非常合逻辑的行为。这为什么会被争议呢?

CJ:Because people question whether the success of Bridgewater is a personalinstinct for the markets or a culture of your company.

RD:It’s the full range of being able to see different perspectives and get at thetruth. Otherwise it’s like having cloudy glasses when you talk about differentperspectives and then try to figure out what the best perspectives are in atransparentand truthful way, you’re going to get better thinking. You’re going to getbetter collective thinking than any individual can have. It’s logical, right?

CJ:因为人们想知道桥水的成功是否是因为个人在市场方面的本能或者是您公司的文化。

RD:(桥水的成功)是因为全面地看到不同观点和了解真相,否则就像是有了浑浊的眼镜一样。当你用一个透明和真实的方式谈论不同观点然后试着找出最好的观点时,你会得到更好的思考。你得到的集体的思考比任何个人能得到的都好。这合乎逻辑,对吗?

达利欧还是华尔街运用算法进行投资的先驱者,不过接受《财经》V课专访时,他却对当下投资决策中的人工智能的过大厚望表达了担忧。除此之外,他还分享了对全球经济周期、中国投资前景的看法。CJ: And also a sentence in your book thatinterests me a lot says to be “assertive and open-minded at the same time.” I think that’s verydifficult. How do you do that?

RD: The curiosity to be driven to try to findthe answer but also know that you may not know the answer will make youassertive and open-minded at the same time. In other words, to try to make sense of it. When you’re trying tothe make sense of something, then you ask questions and you probe. You won’t bediscouraged because someone disagrees. You’re going to be assertive when you’recurious, and then also being open-minded when you’re curious. That means you’re going to take inthe thinking of others. So by being curious to get to the right answer, you’regoing to naturally want to be both assertive and open-minded at the same time.Because you’re going to ask, “It doesn’t make sense to me.” You’re seeking what make sense. Thatwill give you the assertiveness to demand what makes sense, and also you’reopen-mindedness because you’re saying, “It doesn’t make sense, so help melearn.” That will come naturally.

CJ:我对您书里的一个句子也很感兴趣:“同时做到果断和思想开明”。我觉得这很难做到,您是怎么做到的?

RD:被好奇驱使着寻找答案但又明白你也许并不知道这个答案,这个过程会让你同时既果断又开明。换句话说,试着找出它的意义。当你试着让某件事讲得通时,会提出问题并证明它。你不会因为有人不同意你的观点而气馁。在好奇时你会做事果断,同时在好奇时你也会思想开明,这意味着你会接受别人的想法。所以通过好奇来获得正确的答案,你自然会希望同时果断又开明。因为你会问:“这对我来说讲不通。”你会寻找什么才能够讲得通。这会使你有果断的态度来查询什么讲得通,但同时你也是开明的,因为你会说:“这没有道理,帮我弄清楚吧。”这个过程是自然的。

CJ: Through your early investment experience,you have already understood the relationship between the economy and politics.I read an interview where you said investors should pay more attention topolitics than maybe central bank meetings. How are politics important right now?

RD: Politics occasionally has a big impact oneconomics. For example, the changing of the tax laws reducing corporate taxeschanged a big value in terms of the markets and economics and flows. Politicschanged that. If you have a move from the left to the right, or a movefrom the right to the left, it will change how the pie is divided. That’spolitics. But politics is particularly important now because there’s a largewealth gap between the left and the right. And because of that issue, there’s more populism in the world.Populism meaning that the common man feels things are not working for him. Sothat politics will play a greater role in economics and play a greater role indriving the markets.

CJ: Could populism affect particularcountries?

RD: I’m more here not to talk about populism but to talk aboutgeneral principles.

CJ:民粹主义能够影响特别的政府吗?

RD:我希望谈更多的普遍原理,而不是民粹主义

CJ: Maybe we could talk about your relationship with Chinabecause Bridgewater started a China fund in 2016, which wasnot a good year for the Chinese economy because we had the capital outflows.

RD: I don’t want to talk about the markets today. It’s really tofocus on broader principles. So I don’t wanna get into the markets and that.

CJ:也许我们可以聊聊您与中国的关系,因为桥水在2016年开创了中国基金,这一年对于中国经济来说并不是一个很好顺利的时期,你的中国基金达到什么目标? 因为我们发生了资本外流。

RD:我今天不想聊市场,让我们把注意力放在广大的原理上吧。我不想深入讲市场。

CJ: Can I ask what you want to achieve withthis entity in China?

RD: In every country, we invest in the country if they haveliquidity and they have goodmarkets. We bring foreign money in. We manage money for local investors. Andit’s the case now in China the markets have liquidity, they have depth, andChina is a very special place for me, because I started coming here and helpedthe development of some ofthese markets. So if we’re welcome to be investors here, of course we’re goingto invest here. So it’s a natural evolution. Why not?

CJ:我能问:您想让这个企业实体在中国达到什么成就吗?

RD:对于每个国家,如果它具有流动性、有好的市场,我们就会投资。我们会将外币带进来,为本地的投资者管理投资钱财。现在的情况是中国的市场有流动性、有债务深度,而且中国对我来说是个特别的地方,因为我过去过来帮助了一些市场发展。所以如果我们作为投资者在这里是受欢迎的,那我们当然要在这里投资。这是个自然的演变,我有什么理由不这么做呢?

CJ: Because the timing is very special. Maybe five years ago,most people were optimistic about China.

RD: I really don’t understand the long-term pessimism. I think you mustbe referring to is the deleveraging issue. The deleveraging is part of aprocess. They take one to three years to happen. I think [China] has thecapacity to handle the deleveraging very well. It’s denominated in its owncurrency, it’s dealing with itsdebt very well. So I remain very optimistic. I think it’s a good time toinvest. To begin investing now and invest more every year is a smart thing todo for outside investors and Chinese investors. It’s part of investing throughthe cycle. I always investthrough the cycle. I appreciate the growing openness. And I think I cancontribute because there’s always been in China the idea of operating at theworld’s best practices and the professional coming in as a professionalinvestor who understands the localmarkets and the culture I think that would be helpful. So if we are welcome,we’ll be here.

CJ:但是这几年一直有对中国看空的声音存在。你对中国经济,尤其是去杠杆问题是如何看待的?因为这个时间的选择很特别。也许在五年前,多数人会对中国持乐观态度。

RD:我真的不能理解长期的悲观。我想你指的一定是减债(去杠杆化)问题,去杠杆是一个减债是过程的一部分,会持续一至三年。我认为中国有能力将去杠杆减债问题处理得很好,中国的债务它以自己的货币计价,而且它的债务处理得很好,所以我仍然很乐观。我觉得现在是投资的好时机,对于中外投资者来说,现在开始投资并将投资逐年增多是一件非常明智的事。这是周期性投资的一部分,而我一直在进行周期性投资。我很欣赏不断发展的经济外向度。我觉得我能够做出贡献,因为中国一直有世界最佳实践操作的理念。了解本地市场和文化的专业人员来了,成为专业的投资者,我认为这会有所帮助。所以如果我们受欢迎,我们会待在这儿。

CJ: In an interview you said you want to helpChinese people invest abroad, but recently the Chinese government tightenedtheir control of the capital flows.

RD: No, we have no objective. Most of our investment is bringingoutside money into China, and if we’re welcome, investing Chinese money inChinese markets and we respect whatever the policies of the government are. Weare happy to do that.

CJ:在一个采访里您说您希望帮助中国人在海外投资,但最近中国政府加紧了对资金流的控制。

RD:不,我们没有这个目标。我们大多数的投资是把国外资金引入中国,而且如果我们受欢迎的话,(我们可以)将中国资金投资于中国市场。我们尊重政府的任何政策,我们很乐意这样做。

CJ: It is reported that there may be a second China fund…

RD: I really don’t want to get into that.

CJ:有报道说可能会有第二个中国基金……

RD:我真的不想深入讲这部分内容。

CJ: In your principles of theeconomy you talk about short-term debt cycle and long-term cycle, so where arewe?

RD: We’re in the later stagesof the short-term debt cycle where we have stimulation pressing up againstcapacity. Where central banksare tightening monetary policy so we’re in the later stages. Not a bubblestage. Just before a bubble stage. I expect the expansion will go on a couplemore years. We are also in the later stages of a long-term debt cycle becausewe’ve accumulated a lot ofdebt and obligations, pension and healthcare obligations that have to be met.So we’re in the later stages of those things. We’re not in a situation like2007/2008 when there would be debt crises around the corner because when we dothe calculation we don’t see a situationin which there’s a lot of debts that are coming due that can’t be paid. It’smore like there’s a gradual squeezing. Typically in the late stage of the cyclethe returns of asset classes going forward would be much lower than they hadbeen in the past. So I would suspect over the next few years there would belower returns.

《财经》V课CJ:按照你在经济方面归纳的的原则,经济是由短期债务周期和长期债务周期组成的,现在我们处于什么时点?

在您的经济原理中,您谈到了短期的债务周期和长期的债务周期,那我们算是什么样的?

·达利欧RD我们处于短期债务周期的后期阶段,在这一阶段,,有刺激压在能力上。中央银行正在缩紧货币政策,所以我们处于后一阶段。这不是泡沫阶段,是在泡沫阶段之前,我认为期待扩张会多持续几年。

我们同时处于长期债务周期的后期阶段,因为我们已经积累了大量的债务,和义务、有大量养老金抚恤金和医疗保健的义务需要满足实现,所以我们处于这些事情的后期阶段。

但我们不像2007年或2008年那样将要面临债务危机,因为我们在做计算评估的时候,没有看到有巨大债务要到期不能偿还的情况,。而这更像是逐渐的挤压过程。在典型的周期的后期阶段,资产类别的收益会比之前少得多,所以我认为猜在未来几年中收益可能变低。

CJ: Do you think it’sthe time for central banks to tighten their monetary policy or is it a realityalready?

RD: The challenge of this will be because of the stimulationthat is coming when there is capacity constraints. It’s very difficult to getmonetary policy right. Asyou get later into the cycle, it’s never perfect. That’s why we haverecessions. Because it’s very difficult late in the cycle to get it precisely.They will tighten. But the issue is, do you tighten too much or too little? Andthat will become more andmore difficult to get right as you get later into the cycle.

《财经》V课CJ:各国的中央银行都要开始退出非常规的货币政策,你认为您觉得对于中央银行来说,现在是时候缩紧货币政策吗,还是这已经是现实了?

·达利欧

RD它的挑战是因为当能力约束时,刺激出现,恢复正常的(正确了解)货币政策是困难的。当如果你进入这个周期后期,货币政策它不会是完美的,这也是我们会遭遇就是我们经济衰退的原因。因为在周期后期,想要准确地的进行货币政策调控很难。变准确很难。货币政策他们会紧缩,但问题是,你紧缩得太多了还是太少了?随着时间后推,这会越来越困难。

《财经》V课:桥水在2016年开创了中国基金,这实际上是中国经济面临着很多风险的一年,你的中国基金希望达到什么目标?

·达利欧对于每个国家,如果它具有流动性、有好的市场,我们就会投资。我们会将外币带进来,为本地的投资者管理投资。现在的情况是中国的市场有流动性、有债务,而且中国对我来说是个特别的地方,因为我过去帮助了资本市场的发展。所以如果我们作为投资者在这里是受欢迎的,我们当然要在这里投资。这是个自然的演变,我有什么理由不这么做呢?

《财经》V课:但是这几年一直有对中国看空的声音存在。你对中国经济,尤其是去杠杆问题是如何看待的?

·达利欧去杠杆是一个过程,会持续一至三年。我认为中国有能力将去杠杆问题处理得很好,中国的债务以自己的货币计价,所以我仍然很乐观。现在是投资的好时机,对于中外投资者来说,现在开始投资并将投资逐年增多是一件明智的事情。

CJ: I’m very interested inyour perspective on artificial intelligencebecause you’re a pioneer on algorithms back in the 1980s. I think in your bookyou say in theory if there’s a computer that can store all the facts and haveperfect programming it can accurately predict the future. And now some peopleare already talking about replacinghuman traders with AI. Do you think AI right now is good enough to predict thefuture.

RD: It depends on how goodthe algorithms is. There are two ways of getting the algorithm. You can takeyour thinking and putting it into an algorithmand it’s a great power. But it’s no more powerful than the quality of yourthinking. So still you have deep understanding that you’re expressing analgorithm. There is a great power to do that. Still it has to do with thequality of your thinking. There’sa second way you can get algorithms. You can put data into the computer and itwill come up with the algorithms. But the problem with those algorithms is youwon’t understand those algorithms. You won’t have deep understanding. So if thefuture is different from the past,you will have a problem. So my worry is a lot of people will do it the easy wayof dumping data into computers and coming up with algorithms and not havingdeep understanding. Because in the markets it’s particularly dangerous to do thatbecause whatever is known, if it is known in the future, it gets reflected inthe price. And so you have to have the deep understanding reflected in thealgorithms. If you do that, there’s a great power to it. If you let thecomputer come up with thealgorithms, you will probably have problems.

《财经》V课CJ:你您对于人工智能的看法让我很感兴趣,您从上个世纪80年代1980年代开始就是算法的倡导者,你您在书中说,的理论上里说如果有一台存储所有事情并且可以进行完美编程的计算机,它就可以预测未来。而现在我们已经已经有人在讨论让人工智能替代人类交易者,你您认为现在人工智能已经足以预测未来了吗?

·达利欧RD这取决于算法的好坏。实现算法有两种方式:你可以将你的思维放进算法中,这会形成很大的力量,但这不会比你思维本身的力量更有力量。所以你深知你正在表达一个算法,这样做有很大的力量,而这也与你思维的水平相关。实现算法的第二种方式是,:你可以把数据放进电脑计算机里,然后它会提出算法,但问题是你不能深刻地理解它了。所以如果未来与过去不同,你就会遇到出问题。我的担心就是很多人会用后者比较简单的方式,将数据倾倒在电脑计算机里,形成他们并不理解的算法。在市场中,这么做特别危险,因为无论大家知道什么事,如果事情在未来被知道,就会反映在价格上。

所以你必须要深入思考这些算法,这样才会产生巨大的力量。相反,如果你只是让电脑去自己生成算法,可能就会出问题。

有一种说法,CJ: I thinkthe danger right now is people are saying AI is very important because theyhave self-learning ability and the ability to process big data.

RD: There’s a saying, “If you put enough monkeys behindtypewriters, one of them will come up with Shakespeare.” In other words,because there are so many numbers and so many combinations, so the computerwill find combinations to explain the past that doesn’t makesense but they will seem to explain the past. And that’s dangerous. If youdon’t have deep understanding and you just take all of the numbers and dumpthem in a computer and believe, you will have a problem.

CJ:我觉得现在的危险是人们都说人工智能很重要,因为他们具有自学能力以及处理大量数据的能力。

RD:有句谚语说:“如果你在打字机前放足够多的猴子,总会有一只能打出莎士比亚的著作。

它们其中一只会成为想到莎士比亚。”换句话说,由于有太多数字、太多组合,计算机会给之前一些没有意义的过去找到能够解释的组合,而这很危险。如果你没有深入理解,只是把所有的数字扔进计算机里然后相信它们,就会出问题。

CJ: So you need to understand how it gets the result.

RD: You need to understand does that cause-effectrelationship make sense? Because when it escapes your understanding in themarkets, it will cause great problems. And that’s why the quick and easy waybecause you just dump the data in, but hey, watch out.

CJ:所以你得理解它是怎么得出结果的RD:你得理解,:这些因果关系是说得通的吗?因为在市场中,当它脱离了你的理解,会造成严重的问题。把数据扔进去是快速又简单的方式。但是,得当心。

《财经》V课CJ:你早期的投资经历已经让你理解了经济和政治之间的关系,最近你表示,投资者应该更关注政治事件,这比中央银行的会议更重要。为何当下政治如此重要?

·达利欧RD政治有时会对经济产生巨大的冲击,比如降低公司税,在市场、经济和资金流方面产生了巨大的价值价值,是政治改变了这一切。如果你从左翼转移到右翼、或从右翼转移到左翼,馅饼分割的方式将会改变,这就是政治。现在政治格外重要,因为存在着巨大很大的贫富差距,由此世界上产生了更多的民粹主义。民粹主义意味着普通人觉得当下的制度安排对他不起作用,所以政治在经济和推动市场方面扮演了着更重要的角色。

CJ: As you mentioned the reducing of our corporate tax, which isone of President Trump’s flagship policies. How do you think the US economywill benefit from this policy?

RD: That isputting more resources in the hands of the corporation so it will cause moreinvestment, more stimulation and it will stimulate the economy a lot. It’scoming at a time where there’s also reaching capacity limitations. It alsomeans there’s going to be moreborrowing, more selling of bonds, and so on. And that has an effect on themarket. I’m not going to go into my particular positions on the markets orviews because I don’t do that. When there’s constraints, that means there’smore investment, moreproductivity. But it also means that there’s more selling of dollar-denominateddebt in the world, so all of those things will affect the markets.

《财经》V课CJ:你提到的“降低公司税”,这是特朗普总统的一项旗舰政策,美国经济会从他的政策中受益吗?

·达利欧RD这项政策将更多资源放在了公司手上,带来更多投资,这会对经济产生很大的刺激。这项政策产生于产能触碰到天花板之时。但同时减税也意味着将会有更多借贷、更多债券出售等等,由此对市场造成影响。我不会通过市场或观点去进入我的特殊位置,因为我不这么做。当有强制的约束时,会有更多的投资、更大的生产力;但世界上也会销售更多以美元计价的债务,所以这些事情都会影响市场。

CJ: In respect with the populism, I noticed your company alsopublished a report onpopulism, which I think is abnormal for a fund to focus so much on the populismand what we can learn from it. The report focused on some history.

RD: I wrote that report because I think that anything that hashappened in the past, we can learn lessonsfrom. So to study those cases was educational for me. So that’s why I wanted togo back. I studied 14 cases of populism and then I wanted to know how thattranspired on average and what it means and what to look out for. So that’s whyI studied it. Because,yes, it will be an economic influence.

《财经》V课CJ:最近桥水发布了一份一些关注民粹主义的报告,作为一家对冲基金,如此关注民粹主义还挺不寻常的。为什么你要写这份报告?

·达利欧RD我撰写了赚写了这份报告,因为我觉得我们可以从过去发生的事情上吸取教训,所以研究学这些实例对我非常有教育意义。我研究了14个民粹主义的例子,想知道这通常是怎么发生的、这意味着什么,以及如何去提防它,这就是我研究它的原因,因为这会是经济的一个影响因素。

CJ: What have you learned from that history?

RD: I learned that it’s a time of conflict. That there is thattension--the wealth gap. You typically find a strong leader who will representthe common man’s values, the nation’s values, who tends to be more nationalistic,more militaristic and will then fight more for that constituency. And the mostimportant thing is how conflict is handled because can the society reachcompromises or does it have greater polarity. And sometimes in conflict, it’simportant to watchconflict because if that conflict hurts the effectiveness of the country, thenit produces more tensions that feed on itself. So I’ve watched democracies gofrom democracies to choose dictatorships or authoritarian governments becausethey want the leader togain control of a chaotic situation. So I’ve watched that in history. But Idon’t want to get too much into this.

CJ:您从这段历史中学到了什么?

RD:我了解到这是一个冲突的时代。局势的紧张来源于贫富差距。你通常会发现一个强大的领导者,他代表了普遍人的价值、国家的价值,将变得更加民族国家主义、军国主义,为选民而奋斗。最重要的是如何解决冲突,要么是达成妥协,要么是更加两级分化。有时在冲突中,观察冲突很重要,因为它破坏了国家的效率效力,产生了更多自我反馈的紧张关系。当我看到民主政治选择了专制或威权政府,因为他们希望领导者能够控制混乱的局面。我从历史中看到了这些,不过我不想深入讲。

CJ:这真有趣,非常感谢您分享您的深刻见解。

RD:谢谢。

「财经」V课| 财富精英的思享俱乐部

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「财经」V课每周定期更新。欢迎扫码或添加V课助手财小二(ID:caixiaoer-521),收看节目,共享知识盛宴,共探投资之道。

【作者:袁雪】 (编辑:文静)
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